Market Update – June 4, 2025
- Barry B
- Jun 4
- 2 min read
Overview
Another tug-of-war week: cooler inflation data and a small dip in mortgage rates were offset by lingering worries over Washington’s ballooning budget deficit and a fresh credit-rating downgrade. The net result? Rates are holding just under the 7 % mark, giving borrowers a brief window of opportunity.
Rates Snapshot
Product | National Avg.* | 1-week change | YTD range |
30-yr fixed | 6.87 % | -0.09 pp | 6.55 % – 7.06 % |
15-yr fixed | 6.13 % | -0.07 pp | 5.90 % – 6.28 % |
*Source: Mortgage News Daily daily survey, 6/4/25 (mortgagenewsdaily.com)
Key Themes
Tailwinds (rate friendly) | Headwinds (rate unfriendly) |
Fiscal clouds grow darker:• Moody’s cut the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1 on May 16, citing the $36 trn debt load. (reuters.com) | |
Wholesale prices fell: April core PPI -0.4 % MoM (biggest drop since 2020). | More Treasuries on tap: Larger deficits mean heavier bond supply, pushing yields—and therefore mortgage rates—higher. |
Consumer mood rebounds: Confidence index jumped 12 pts to 98.0 in May. (conference-board.org) |
Housing Pulse
Existing-home sales: down 0.5 % in April to a 4.00 M annual pace; median price $414k—a record for April. (nar.realtor)
New-home sales: median price $407k, edging 0.8 % higher from March. (census.gov)
Take-away: Demand is cooling but prices remain sticky as supply stays tight.
What to Watch Next
Date | Release | Why it matters |
Fri 6/6 | Employment Situation (May) | A soft jobs print would reinforce the “cooling inflation” story. (bls.gov) |
Wed 6/11 | CPI (May) | First peek at post-tariff consumer prices. (bls.gov) |
Thu 6/12 | PPI (May) | Confirms or contradicts the April PPI plunge. |
Tue-Wed 6/17-18 | FOMC Meeting & Press Conf. | The Fed’s new rate projections (dot plot) could jolt bond markets. (federalreserve.gov) |
Bottom Line for Borrowers
Rates are hovering in a “calm before the data storm” range. If forthcoming inflation or jobs numbers cooperate, we could see another leg lower. But renewed deficit drama or a hawkish Fed stance could swing momentum the other way. If you’re within 60 days of closing, consider locking part or all of your rate now and keeping a close eye on next week’s CPI.
Fun Fact
Even after its downgrade, the U.S. still enjoys borrowing costs well below many Aa-rated peers — a reminder that “risk-free” often means “least risky,” not “risk-less.”
Thinking about buying, refinancing, or just want to discuss today’s market? I’m only a call or email away—let’s chart the best path for your goals.