Housing Inventory Climbs Higher as Retail Sales Surprise
- Barry B
- Jul 23
- 2 min read
Overview
Mortgage markets mostly drifted sideways this week. A stronger-than-expected retail-spending report offered a mild boost to risk sentiment, but the impact on rates was limited. Thirty-year fixed mortgages ticked a couple of basis points lower, keeping them near their July range.
Retail Sales Re-accelerate
June retail sales rose 0.6 % m/m (vs. 0.2 % expected) and stand 4 % above last year.
Strength was broad-based, led by motor vehicles, home-improvement stores, and apparel.
Even typically cyclical categories such as restaurants & bars posted solid gains, hinting that consumers remain willing to spend despite mixed confidence surveys.
Chart: Retail Sales (% change Oct 2024 – Jun 2025)
Existing-Home Market: Fewer Sales, Record Prices
June existing-home sales fell 3 % m/m, undershooting forecasts.
Median price hit $435,300—a record for June—up 2 % y/y.
Inventory improved to 4.7 months’ supply, still below the ~6 months that marks a balanced market but 16 % higher than a year ago, easing some pressure on buyers.
New Construction: Multifamily Lifts Starts, Single-Family Lags
Total housing starts rebounded 5 % m/m after May’s five-year low, but the gain came entirely from a 30 % surge in multifamily units.
Single-family starts slipped and permits fell for a fourth straight month to the lowest level since early 2023—signalling softer pipeline activity.
NAHB builder sentiment inched up from cycle lows, yet firms cited tariff uncertainty and rising material costs as headwinds to pricing new homes.
Week Ahead
Date | Release / Event |
Jul 24 | New-Home Sales · ECB policy meeting |
Jul 29 | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
Jul 30 | FOMC meeting · Q2 GDP (advance) |
Fun Fact: A “balanced” U.S. housing market historically sees about 1.5 million active listings. Today’s count is roughly 930 k, so every uptick in inventory moves buyers a step closer to normal conditions.